As Lithuania and Ignitis Group continue to make strides toward energy independence, we are producing more energy from renewable sources each year. This shift from fossil fuels to green energy comes with many challenges, one of which is an increasing dependence on weather and climate. Consequently, we are actively analyzing the impacts of climate change, weather patterns, and electrification on electricity production, consumption, and the optimization of our operations.

Why is Climate Important for Energy Sector?

Climate considerations are integral even at the planning stage of building wind or solar power plants. The climate, which encompasses long-term prevailing weather conditions, is crucial for selecting the optimal location for future power plants. By analyzing longer measurement sequences in a specific area, we can more accurately assess its energy potential. Higher wind speeds in the western part of the country make it an ideal location for the majority of wind farms. This region also benefits from slightly longer sunshine duration, enhancing its suitability for solar power generation.

As green energy scales up, the issue of seasonal electricity production becomes more pronounced. Solar power plants generate most of their electricity during the summer, while in the winter months, their output typically doesn't exceed 5%. Wind power generation, on the other hand, peaks during the colder season. Lithuania experiences stronger winds and colder, denser air during winter, which aids in turbine efficiency. This wind power seasonality matches well with our country's electricity consumption patterns, as we use the most energy in the winter.

Why is Weather Important for Energy Sector?

While seasonality presents its own challenges, it is relatively predictable. However, short-term changes in atmospheric conditions - weather - are much harder to forecast. Renewable electricity production is entirely dependent on the weather, making it highly dynamic. On windy and sunny days, we can meet the entire country's electricity needs solely from renewable energy sources. Conversely, on days with heavy cloud cover and calm winds, green energy production from solar and wind power plants is nearly non-existent. Due to this weather dependency, we currently fill the gaps in electricity demand through imports or by burning more fossil fuels domestically. When there is excess production, we can export the electricity, store it in batteries, or address this energy flexibility issue with P2X technologies.

The amount of green energy produced isn't the only aspect affected by the weather. Adverse conditions may necessitate shutting down power plants, and in extreme cases, there is a risk of equipment damage. Understanding the local climate well allows for optimal selection of power plant parameters. For instance, choosing solar panels that are resistant to a specific hailstone diameter. By predicting dangerous weather events in advance and preparing for them, we can significantly reduce potential losses.

The dynamic nature of green energy makes forecasting electricity production and trading in the market challenging. Adding prosumers and neighboring countries facing similar challenges, with whom we trade electricity, further increases the complexity. Accurate weather forecasts are essential in addressing these challenges.

How Are Forecasts Made?

To account for model uncertainty, ensemble forecasts are used, running multiple simulations with different initial conditions. Artificial intelligence can help identify patterns and relationships within historical data, resulting in more reliable forecasts. Without accurate and detailed observational data from around the world and sufficient computational resources to process it, weather models cannot produce completely accurate forecasts. Long-term forecasts are always less reliable, so models are constantly being updated and refined.

As models improve and new technological solutions emerge, the Ignitis Group‘s Innovation hub tests and explores their potential applications. This is particularly important for teams that forecast energy consumption and generation and those focused on optimizing energy production.

What Tools Do Meteorologists and Weather Enthusiasts Use?

• Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service. The primary source of meteorological data in Lithuania. You can find everything from regular weather forecasts to water body temperatures and UV indexes for cities across the country.
• Windy App. A highly user-friendly tool that offers a wide range of meteorological parameters, allowing you to compare forecasts from various models.
• Turbli. Perfect for those preparing for a flight, Turbli provides forecasts for turbulence and wind speed, helping you know if your journey will be comfortable and if it might take longer or shorter than expected.
• Lightning Maps. Curious about where that nearby lightning strike hit? Check out the Lightning Maps website to find out.

For more information please contact Junior Innovation Project Manager Giedrius Uselis, [email protected]